MERVAL Daily Analysis — 2026-08-13
Session: ClosingLatest
- Close
- 3,004,203.50
- Change
- 0.16%
- 1W Change
- -3.11%
- 20D Change
- -5.68%
- EMA20
- 3,155,135.78
- EMA50
- 3,152,478.90
- EMA200
- 2,894,693.67
- RSI (14)
- 35.4
- ATR (14)
- 82,134.00
- Volatility (20D)
- 25.08%
- Distance from 20D High
- -11.54%
- Advancers
- —
- Decliners
- —
- Volume
- 0
- VIX
- 14.64
- US10Y
- 4.64%
- DXY
- 99.96
The index closed slightly higher, showing a mild recovery after a weak weekly and monthly performance. Overall momentum remains subdued with a cautious tone.
Market Drivers
The modest uptick appears driven by a stabilization attempt, though underlying sentiment remains fragile amid recent declines. No specific catalysts are evident from the data.
Trend Interpretation
Price is trading below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a short-term downtrend. Momentum is weak, with the RSI in neutral-to-bearish territory.
Risk Factors
Key risks include sustained weakness below moving averages, elevated volatility, and a potential continuation of the recent negative trend. External factors like global risk sentiment could also weigh.
Bullish
In a bullish scenario, the index could reclaim its short-term moving averages and build on the current stabilization, leading to a recovery toward recent highs.
Neutral
A neutral scenario would see the index consolidating within a range, with price oscillating around current levels as investors await clearer direction.
Risk
In a risk scenario, failure to hold above key support could trigger further downside, with volatility expanding and momentum turning more negative.