MERVAL Daily Analysis — 2026-08-20
Session: ClosingLatest
- Close
- 2,875,598.50
- Change
- 0.04%
- 1W Change
- -4.13%
- 20D Change
- -14.92%
- EMA20
- 3,068,901.52
- EMA50
- 3,114,450.67
- EMA200
- 2,898,675.31
- RSI (14)
- 28.3
- ATR (14)
- 82,156.63
- Volatility (20D)
- 20.09%
- Distance from 20D High
- -15.17%
- Advancers
- —
- Decliners
- —
- Volume
- 0
- VIX
- 15.99
- US10Y
- 4.70%
- DXY
- 98.88
The index closed slightly higher, but the broader short-term trend remains weak with significant losses over the past month.
Market Drivers
The modest uptick appears to be a technical rebound within a broader corrective phase, with no clear fundamental catalyst evident from the data.
Trend Interpretation
Price is trading below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a bearish short-term trend, while the 200-day average is still above, suggesting a longer-term uptrend is intact but under pressure.
Risk Factors
Key risks include sustained negative momentum, potential for further downside if support levels fail, and elevated volatility that could amplify moves.
Bullish
In a bullish scenario, the index could stabilize and reclaim the short-term moving averages, leading to a recovery toward recent highs as buying interest returns.
Neutral
In a neutral scenario, the index may consolidate within a range, oscillating between support and resistance as market participants await clearer direction.
Risk
In a risk scenario, continued selling pressure could push the index below key support, extending the correction and potentially testing the 200-day average.