MERVAL Daily Analysis — 2026-09-15
Session: ClosingLatest
- Close
- 3,079,778.75
- Change
- -0.16%
- 1W Change
- 0.12%
- 20D Change
- 6.51%
- EMA20
- 3,068,668.62
- EMA50
- 3,084,909.95
- EMA200
- 2,922,074.40
- RSI (14)
- 50.8
- ATR (14)
- 68,334.56
- Volatility (20D)
- 19.42%
- Distance from 20D High
- -2.91%
- Advancers
- —
- Decliners
- —
- Volume
- 0
- VIX
- 17.20
- US10Y
- 5.00%
- DXY
- 99.65
The index is in a mild consolidation phase, with a slight weekly gain and a more pronounced monthly advance, while momentum remains neutral and volatility is moderate.
Market Drivers
The move is driven by a neutral momentum backdrop and moderate volatility, with no clear directional catalyst from the provided data.
Trend Interpretation
The index is trading above its medium-term and long-term moving averages but slightly below its shorter-term average, indicating a mixed trend structure with a neutral RSI.
Risk Factors
Key risks include a potential loss of momentum if the index fails to hold above its medium-term average, and external pressures from elevated US yields and a firm dollar.
Bullish
In a bullish scenario, the index could regain its shorter-term average and extend gains toward its recent high, supported by positive momentum and moderate volatility.
Neutral
In a neutral scenario, the index may continue to trade in a range around its moving averages, with low directional conviction and mixed momentum.
Risk
In a risk scenario, a break below the medium-term average could lead to a deeper pullback toward the long-term average, especially if volatility increases.