MERVAL Daily Analysis — 2026-09-18
Session: ClosingLatest
- Close
- 3,021,926.00
- Change
- -1.29%
- 1W Change
- -2.48%
- 20D Change
- 3.73%
- EMA20
- 3,060,497.61
- EMA50
- 3,079,530.14
- EMA200
- 2,926,471.30
- RSI (14)
- 45.2
- ATR (14)
- 67,378.58
- Volatility (20D)
- 21.02%
- Distance from 20D High
- -4.73%
- Advancers
- —
- Decliners
- —
- Volume
- 0
- VIX
- 14.81
- US10Y
- 5.00%
- DXY
- 100.19
MERVAL closed slightly lower, with a modest weekly decline but a positive monthly gain, indicating a mixed short-term picture.
Market Drivers
The move appears driven by mild profit-taking after recent gains, with global risk sentiment stable as reflected in low volatility and a firm dollar.
Trend Interpretation
The index is trading below its short- and medium-term moving averages but remains above the long-term average, suggesting a consolidation within a broader uptrend.
Risk Factors
Key risks include a break below the long-term moving average, rising global yields, and a stronger dollar pressuring emerging markets.
Bullish
In a bullish scenario, the index could reclaim its short-term moving averages and resume the longer-term uptrend, supported by stable global risk appetite.
Neutral
In a neutral scenario, the index may continue to range-bound around current levels, with low directional conviction and mixed momentum.
Risk
In a risk scenario, a sustained break below the long-term moving average could accelerate losses, especially if global yields rise further or the dollar strengthens.