SMI Daily Analysis — 2026-09-21
Session: ClosingLatest
- Close
- 13,956.58
- Change
- 1.23%
- 1W Change
- 0.56%
- 20D Change
- -3.40%
- EMA20
- 14,057.17
- EMA50
- 14,139.16
- EMA200
- 13,618.32
- RSI (14)
- 43.6
- ATR (14)
- 156.14
- Volatility (20D)
- 12.88%
- Distance from 20D High
- -4.45%
- Advancers
- —
- Decliners
- —
- Volume
- 0
- VIX
- 14.87
- US10Y
- 4.96%
- DXY
- 100.42
The SMI is showing a modest recovery today, though it remains below its short-term moving averages. Momentum is weak and the index is still in a corrective phase over the past month.
Market Drivers
The move appears driven by a slight easing in global risk aversion, as indicated by a stable dollar and moderate volatility. However, the lack of volume and mixed breadth suggest limited conviction.
Trend Interpretation
The index is trading below its short-term moving averages but above its long-term average, indicating a mixed trend structure. Momentum is weak, with the RSI below the neutral level.
Risk Factors
Key risks include elevated long-term bond yields and a potential pickup in volatility, which could pressure equities. The distance from recent highs also highlights vulnerability to further downside.
Bullish
In a bullish scenario, the index could reclaim its short-term moving averages and build on today's gains, supported by improving risk sentiment and stable volatility.
Neutral
In a neutral scenario, the index may continue to trade in a range, with limited directional momentum and mixed signals from moving averages and breadth.
Risk
In a risk scenario, a break below the long-term moving average could accelerate selling pressure, especially if volatility rises and bond yields remain elevated.