MERVAL Daily Analysis — 2026-08-10
Session: Closing
- Close
- 3.122.064,50
- Change
- 1,14%
- 1W Change
- -4,65%
- 20D Change
- -3,50%
- EMA20
- 3.206.611,80
- EMA50
- 3.170.838,41
- EMA200
- 2.889.880,96
- RSI (14)
- 42,5
- ATR (14)
- 288.590,71
- Volatility (20D)
- 26,20%
- Distance from 20D High
- -58,74%
- Advancers
- —
- Decliners
- —
- Volume
- 0
- VIX
- 15,46
- US10Y
- 4,70%
- DXY
- 99,81
The index closed slightly higher, showing a mild recovery after a weak weekly performance. Overall momentum remains subdued, with the market still below key short-term averages.
Market Drivers
The modest uptick appears driven by a stabilization in risk sentiment, though the broader trend remains cautious. No specific catalysts are evident from the data.
Trend Interpretation
Price is trading below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a short-term downtrend. Momentum is weak, as reflected by a neutral-to-soft RSI reading.
Risk Factors
Elevated volatility and a significant distance from recent highs suggest vulnerability to further downside. A weak market breadth could amplify any negative moves.
Bullish
In a bullish scenario, the index could reclaim its short-term moving averages and build on the recent bounce, potentially targeting higher levels if momentum improves.
Neutral
In a neutral scenario, the index may consolidate within a range, oscillating around its moving averages as investors await clearer directional cues.
Risk
In a risk scenario, a break below recent support levels could accelerate selling, with the index potentially testing lower support zones given the current weak momentum.