MERVAL Daily Analysis — 2026-08-11
Session: Closing
- Close
- 3.022.484,50
- Change
- -3,19%
- 1W Change
- -5,22%
- 20D Change
- -6,41%
- EMA20
- 3.189.075,91
- EMA50
- 3.165.021,98
- EMA200
- 2.895.158,82
- RSI (14)
- 36,2
- ATR (14)
- 281.667,06
- Volatility (20D)
- 28,32%
- Distance from 20D High
- -60,05%
- Advancers
- —
- Decliners
- —
- Volume
- 0
- VIX
- 15,28
- US10Y
- 4,68%
- DXY
- 99,82
The index is experiencing a notable decline, with momentum firmly to the downside and prices trading below key short-term averages.
Market Drivers
The move is driven by broad risk-off sentiment, as reflected in elevated volatility and a stronger dollar, while market breadth remains weak.
Trend Interpretation
Price action is below both the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages, indicating a bearish short-term trend, with the longer-term 200-day average still providing a potential support zone.
Risk Factors
Key risks include continued deterioration in market breadth, a further rise in volatility, and a break below the longer-term average, which could accelerate selling.
Bullish
In a bullish scenario, the index could find support near the longer-term average and stage a rebound, with improving momentum and a recovery in market breadth.
Neutral
A neutral scenario would see the index consolidating in a range, with prices oscillating between the short-term resistance and the longer-term support, as volatility subsides.
Risk
In a risk scenario, a decisive break below the longer-term average could trigger further downside, with the index extending its losses and volatility spiking.