MERVAL Daily Analysis — 2026-08-24
Session: ClosingLatest
- Close
- 2,991,269.50
- Change
- 2.68%
- 1W Change
- 1.49%
- 20D Change
- -8.91%
- EMA20
- 3,048,117.56
- EMA50
- 3,102,052.24
- EMA200
- 2,907,720.09
- RSI (14)
- 42.1
- ATR (14)
- 84,001.72
- Volatility (20D)
- 24.03%
- Distance from 20D High
- -11.17%
- Advancers
- —
- Decliners
- —
- Volume
- 0
- VIX
- 15.85
- US10Y
- 4.70%
- DXY
- 99.02
The index posted a solid gain in the latest session, though it remains below its short- and medium-term trend averages, indicating a corrective bounce within a broader pullback.
Market Drivers
The advance appears driven by a rebound in risk appetite, supported by a relatively calm volatility backdrop and a softer dollar, which typically aids emerging market assets.
Trend Interpretation
Price is trading below the 20- and 50-period moving averages but above the 200-period average, suggesting a longer-term uptrend is intact while the short-term momentum is bearish.
Risk Factors
Key risks include a potential break below the long-term average, which could signal a deeper correction, and elevated volatility that may persist given the recent sharp swings.
Bullish
In a bullish scenario, the index reclaims its short-term averages and builds on the current bounce, potentially resuming the broader uptrend with improving momentum.
Neutral
A neutral scenario would see the index oscillating between its short-term and long-term averages, consolidating recent losses while awaiting a clearer directional catalyst.
Risk
In a risk scenario, failure to hold above the long-term average could trigger further downside, with the index extending its pullback and testing lower support levels.