MERVAL Daily Analysis — 2026-08-25
Session: ClosingLatest
- Close
- 3,007,815.25
- Change
- 0.42%
- 1W Change
- 4.02%
- 20D Change
- -9.00%
- EMA20
- 3,044,611.90
- EMA50
- 3,098,502.54
- EMA200
- 2,909,917.76
- RSI (14)
- 43.8
- ATR (14)
- 81,815.42
- Volatility (20D)
- 24.13%
- Distance from 20D High
- -10.68%
- Advancers
- —
- Decliners
- —
- Volume
- 0
- VIX
- 15.42
- US10Y
- 4.64%
- DXY
- 98.88
The index closed slightly higher, showing a mild recovery after a weak month, though it remains below key short-term averages.
Market Drivers
The move is driven by a modest rebound in risk appetite, with volatility at moderate levels and a stable external backdrop.
Trend Interpretation
Price is below the 20-day and 50-day averages but above the 200-day average, indicating a short-term pullback within a longer-term uptrend. Momentum is neutral-to-weak.
Risk Factors
Key risks include a potential break below the long-term average, rising volatility, and a deteriorating global risk environment.
Bullish
In a bullish scenario, the index reclaims its short-term averages and resumes its upward trajectory, supported by improving momentum and a favorable external environment.
Neutral
In a neutral scenario, the index may consolidate within a range, oscillating around its moving averages as it digests recent losses.
Risk
In a risk scenario, the index could extend its decline, breaking below the long-term average and triggering further downside, especially if volatility spikes.