MERVAL Daily Analysis — 2026-08-26
Session: ClosingLatest
- Close
- 3,024,971.00
- Change
- 0.53%
- 1W Change
- 5.24%
- 20D Change
- -7.11%
- EMA20
- 3,042,845.92
- EMA50
- 3,095,666.94
- EMA200
- 2,917,487.61
- RSI (14)
- 45.6
- ATR (14)
- 79,129.62
- Volatility (20D)
- 24.08%
- Distance from 20D High
- -10.17%
- Advancers
- —
- Decliners
- —
- Volume
- 0
- VIX
- 15.21
- US10Y
- 4.66%
- DXY
- 99.14
The index closed slightly higher, showing a mild recovery after a weak month, though it remains below its short-term averages.
Market Drivers
The move is driven by a modest rebound in risk appetite, supported by a stable volatility backdrop and a slight improvement in momentum.
Trend Interpretation
Price is trading below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages but above the 200-day average, indicating a short-term pullback within a longer-term uptrend. Momentum is neutral, with RSI in the middle zone.
Risk Factors
Key risks include elevated volatility and a significant distance from recent highs, suggesting potential for further downside if support levels fail.
Bullish
In a bullish scenario, the index could reclaim its short-term averages and push toward recent highs, driven by improving market breadth and a stable external environment.
Neutral
In a neutral scenario, the index may consolidate within a range, oscillating around its moving averages as investors await clearer directional cues.
Risk
In a risk scenario, a break below key support could accelerate selling, with volatility expanding and the index testing longer-term trendlines.